Krasnodar was expected to go to the Black Sea after a deployment in Syria (this is controversial under the Montreux Agreement, but for another time). It was then returning to the Black sea following maintenance in the Baltic. The submarine is suspected to be Krasnodar, which has been in the Mediterranean for over a year, since August 2021. There are insufficient facilities in Tartus, Syria where it is based. The most likely explanation for the submarines departure is that it needs maintenance. It means that Russia may regret reducing its forces in the Mediterranean.īut it has to. This and other scenarios look more plausible to today than they did a month ago. Whatever the likihood, these are scenarios Moscow will be weiin up. Possibly conventional strikes against Russian high-value assets in the Black Sea. and / or NATO will be compelled to respond militarily. There is a view that if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, as has been suggested, that the U.S. So you could say that the submarine’s mission was already done, even if it was only a small part of that.īut with the Kremlin searching desperately for a magic bullet, Russia may find itself facing NATO aircraft carriers. Previously the prospect of direct NATO involvement, such as air strikes, receded rapidly at the outbreak of the war. The Improved- KILO Class submarine passing Gibraltar, 08.45 local time on September 24, 2022. (Note: this is a point of Russian doctrine and naval strategy rather than a comment on the relative match-up between Russian and NATO forces.) These are largely there as a counter and deterrence against NATO involvement in Ukraine. Together with the withdrawal of the SLAVA class cruiser Marshal Ustinov in August, it weakens their forces there. This is bad timing from the Russian perspective. This leaves just one KILO submarine in the Mediterranean. It is accompanied by a sea going tug, Sergey Balk. The Pr.636.3 Improved-KILO class boat is likely heading to the Baltic for much needed maintenance. This morning a Russian Navy submarine sailed, on the surface, past Gibraltar where it exited the Mediterranean. Russia Forced To Reduce Submarines In Mediterranean Despite Risk Of Escalation In Ukraine
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